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When the current collective bargaining agreement ends after the 2026 season, we’re sure to see a few things happen. For one, MLB is likely to lock the players out while shaking their head back and forth so you know they don’t approve of the action. They will probably demand a salary cap even if they don’t actually expect to get one, as starting there could help land them an even more restrictive luxury tax-style system than is in place.
And they might broach the subject of expanding the postseason even further. Why? Because there would be additional money in it, in the forms of larger and more television deals. At present, 12 teams make the postseason: three division winners in each league, plus another three wild cards apiece. Expanding to 12 was a compromise: before the current CBA was put into place at the end of the 2021-2022 lockout, 10 teams made the postseason, and the owners had demanded 14 during bargaining. They’ll surely shoot for 14 again, especially when they are looking to find ways to increase the value of their next television deals. That subject will come up again after the 2028 campaign, in the middle of the next CBA, so having the expansion in place in advance would do wonders for those talks and their wallets.
The 2025 season, though, is a good reminder of how the league is already pushing things by having even 12 teams making it to meaningful October baseball. The Blue Jays, Tigers, and Astros lead the AL divisions, while the Phillies, Brewers, and Dodgers top the NL’s. In the AL East, the Red Sox and Yankees are just 2.5 back of Toronto, which has made for a healthy race and two strong top contenders for the wild card. The AL Central has no one else worth talking about, despite the occasional flashes of competence from the Guardians and Royals, while the AL West features the Mariners three games back of the Astros, even though Houston themselves trails the Jays and Tigers by four wins for the top seed in the AL.
The Mariners, who lag behind the rest of the wild card field, are on pace for 88 wins, which is fine enough for a third wild card but it’s also a pretty clear line in the sand for quality in the AL. The Rangers are on pace for 83 wins; they’re 1.5 back of the last wild card. The Royals (82-win pace) are next up, while the Rays sit at .500 right now, 3.5 back of Seattle, and the Guardians, despite being under .500, are four games behind. Cleveland and Kansas City have both been outscored on the season. Do we really need two more of those teams making it to October?
The NL picture is even worse. The Reds and Giants are the closest to the third wild card, currently held by the 75-64 Mets — Cincinnati and San Francisco are both one game over .500. Even leaving aside the actual quality of the postseason teams, what does this do to the in-season drama of a playoff race, when teams that are don’t even have a winning record are still in this thing until the end? No team actually worth watching would have to worry about making it to the postseason.
The playoffs themselves would still be fine, given the nature of baseball, but the regular season is already struggling to maintain its excitement at this point. What are we waiting to see, exactly, with just under a month left in the season? Whether the Mariners are going to blow it and let in a team that’s barely kept their heads above water all year in their place? To see which team comes out on top of the AL East when the two that don’t still make it to October just fine?
Having a dozen teams make it is too many, but the league seems to be able to at least make it work in terms of the teams that do reach the postseason being winning clubs. That was just barely the case in 2023, when a pair of 84-win teams made it, but overall, 12 has worked out in the first CBA with that many playoff teams, even if it’s come at the expense of regular season excitement. Any more than that, and the regular season — and postseason — are likely to take another hit in quality.
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