This article is free for anyone to read, but please consider becoming a Patreon subscriber to allow me to keep writing posts like this one. Sign up to receive articles like this one in your inbox here.
On Wednesday, the MLB Players Association sent out a press release detailing the opening proposals they sent to the the league. It was a delightful little surprise, considering the PA tends to be quiet about this sort of thing, but — and this is just my opinion here, as someone who has been on this beat for multiple collective bargaining agreements — the idea is likely to keep pace with the league, which will absolutely release info every time proposals are exchanged and leading up to the next batch, as well. That’s how a narrative is controlled, and with the union not having the kind of explicit and obvious support from both media and fans that it enjoyed in 2021-2022, both in the lead-in and during the lockout itself, it’s understandable that the PA would use the 2026 negotiations to attempt to keep the story in check.
I covered the proposals — what we know of them at this time, anyway, the PA gave a broad view with few figures in it in its statement — over at Baseball Prospectus, which you’ll need a subscription to read. However, I can give you the broad strokes of the broad strokes: the PA is doing essentially what I suggested it should do back in April, with expansions to the league minimum salary, arbitration eligibility, and the bonus pool for pre-arb players, but on top of that is also trying to get ahead of MLB’s desire for a salary cap with a plan to reshape revenue-sharing, as well as reward low-revenue teams for spending and punish those who avoid it.
It’s an impressive opening round of proposals, as it has a clear identity and seeks to — despite the early protestations of MLB spokesperson Glen Caplin, whose job is to make this sounds harder than it needs to be over the next few months — help the league get to a place where things are more competitive than they are now, with huge streams of revenue flowing down from the richest teams to the ones that can comparatively use a hand. The league will release their proposals today, either through a statement or via leaks, and they are all but guaranteed to include a salary cap. As I’ve said again and again, whether MLB actually expects or wants a cap is beside the point: having to be talked down from that point matters in negotiations, in the same way that the union asking for a $1.5 million minimum salary doesn’t mean they expect to win a $1.5 million minimum salary.
While I already said the media isn’t necessarily behind the players in the way they were last time around, that doesn’t mean it will line up behind MLB on everything. Let’s put it this way: The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, a former general manager who has long been league-friendly and pro-salary cap, is out here publicly saying that a lockout just isn’t worth it to get a salary cap, and that competitiveness is more of a skill issue than a financial one. If the league is losing someone like Bowden before things even kick off, that’s not a great sign for sustained cap support — especially not when the union is suggesting a minimum $240 million in revenue-sharing annually for low-revenue clubs, with its recipients only having to promise to spend it on the big-league club and not for nebulous off-field accounting.
You also have The Athletic’s Evan Drellich pointing out that the desire for a cap has nothing to do with competitiveness and everything to do with a desire for increasing franchise values at the rate that NFL and NBA teams grow at — there are just too many holes in the league’s argument that are being exploited by mainstream media from the start of things, let alone how annoying and granular folks more at my level can get about all of this.
Drellich — and MLBPA interim executive director Bruce Meyer — both pointed to the Padres as a counter to MLB’s claim that a cap and payroll certainty are the only ways to grow franchise value:
“Despite a steady drumbeat of management complaints about lagging franchise values and small markets’ supposed inability to compete, the reported Padres’ sale is yet another example that our game has never been stronger — that owners willing to invest in gifted players while also developing home-grown talent will be rewarded at the turnstiles, in the standings, and in the market,” Bruce Meyer, the interim head of the Players Association, said in a statement. “The Padres’ commitment to winning has now resulted in a reported record sale price of nearly $4 billion, boosting the value of every team in every market.
Last month, also for Baseball Prospectus, I wrote about the change in the Padres’ approach, attendance, spending, and revenue, and how it led to what was looking like a $3.5 billion sale. They ended up going for $3.9 billion, in a deal that’s still in the approval process. There is a lesson to be learned there, whether some owners want to admit it or not, but if you give fans a reason to care, they will come to your stadium, they will spend money, and a desirable franchise value will come with it. No cap necessary.
We’ll have to wait quite a bit for that tune to change, however, as the league will want to see how far along and how much can be extracted from the union as they keep up this cap charade in bargaining.
Apologies for not updating the newsletter much this month, but there is a reason for that: I broke my wrist a few weeks back, and had to get surgery to repair the fracture. That made typing difficult (as well as staying awake after the kids went to bed), so I had to pare down a bit and focus more on my day job and freelance pieces.
Luckily, I’m in a regular cast now instead of a bulky splint, and while I wouldn’t classify the typing I’m able to do as comfortable — using your elbow and shoulder to move your hand to where it needs to go instead of your wrist is not recommended unless you have to go that route, and I do — at least I’m moving at about 90 percent speed now instead of where I was even a week ago, which was more like 25 percent.
Visit my Patreon to become a supporter and help me continue to write articles like this one.